The Academy Awards (predictions)

Well, folks, it's that time of year again. Time to roll out the red carpet and put on your Sunday best, because the stars will be out to(morrow) night.

I now humbly offer my own personal predictions as to how the awards will turn out. This was certainly an interesting year for the movies. Few of the nominees were very surprising, but I have a feeling that the winners could well turn out to be surprising. This is one of those very rare years in which it not implausible to believe that all of the major awards could go to different films. Anyway, I guess we'll just have to hold our breath.

Best Actor
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx - Ray

This was a year of strong male performances. Narrowing it down to only five must have been hell. Actors such as Paul Giamatti, Javiar Bardem, Tom Cruise, Jim Carrey, Liam Neeson et al could all easily have been deservingly nominated, but I respect the five choices. Cheadle gives a performance of rare dignity and courage. Depp gives an unusually restrained, understated, and touching performance. DiCaprio is amazing to watch as a man with so many layers and troubles it becomes difficult to keep up with them all. Eastwood gives a performance 70 years in the making. Foxx and Ray Charles... wait, they're different people? Coulda fooled me. People were already saying he was going to win Oscar gold months before the film even opened, and they're probably right. It's too bad, though, because, to me, DiCaprio's performance demonstrates all of the facets of great acting. But then again, with Foxx nominated in two categories he could split the vote and lose both. In that event, it's anyone's game. Though I think Cheadle has the least chance of winning.

Will win: Jamie Foxx
Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actor:
Alan Alda - The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church - Sideways
Jamie Foxx - Collateral
Morgan Freeman - Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen - Closer

I find it strange that year after year, the most difficult category for me to choose is the best supporting actor category. Honestly, I can see it going to either Morgan Freeman or Thomas Haden Church. Clive Owen might even be able to sneak in there after his Golden Globe victory. For over a decade, Freeman has been one of the most respected of all actors from audiences, critics, and Hollywood alike, but he has yet to win. Then again, Church came out of nowhere and stole the film as the immature, lecherous buddy. Alda won't win and Foxx has a far better chance in the best actor category. I'm just upset that David Carradine didn't get nominated for Kill Bill vol. 2, because I would have voted for him if he had.

Will win: Morgan Freeman
Should win: Thomas Haden Church

Best Actress:
Annette Bening - Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

I have yet to see, Being Julia, so my opinion here isn't as informed as it could be. But, in this case, I don't think it really matters. Just give it to Hilary Swank. When given a good role, she is almost unbeatable as an actress. With two nominations in her career thusfar, she will probably walk away with two wins. In the unlikely event that she loses, I would hope it would go to Imelda Staunton. I must say, however, I was pleased to see Moreno nominated. While she won't win, it was only her first performance in a film and she is a very natural actress.

Will win: Hilary Swank
Should win: Hilary Swank

Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman - Closer

Here's another difficult race to predict. Cate Blanchett really can do anything and she never ceases to amaze me. Virginia Madsen just amazed everyone. And Natalie Portman continues to prove that she's probably the best young actress around. Portman already won the Golden Globe and my heart a long time ago, so I may be a bit biased, but she provided the strongest link in a chain of strong actors in Mike Nichols' film. I have to salute anyone who is willing to attempt to play Katharine Hepburn, because that's no small task. And I still can't count out Madsen who may well be the surprise choice.

Will win: Cate Blanchett
Should win: Natalie Portman

Animated Feature:
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

Well, I haven't seen Shark Tale or Shrek 2, but I doubt I need to. I already know what deserves to win this category. I will be a disappointing day indeed if The Incredibles loses. But then again, Shrek swipped the honors from the more deserving, Monsters, Inc. a few years back. Did anyone even like Shark Tale?

Will win: The Incredibles
Should win: The Incredibles

Art Direction:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement

It's about time that someone recognized that Dante Ferretti is the best production designer in the business today. After getting completely robbed for his work on Gangs of New York he should have no problem this year with The Aviator. If he doesn't win, however, it had better go to The Phantom of the Opera.

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: The Aviator

Cinematography:
The Aviator - Robert Richardson
House of Flying Daggers - Zhao Xiaoding
The Passion of the Christ - Caleb Deschanel
The Phantom of the Opera - John Mathieson
A Very Long Engagement - Bruno Delbonnel

And the winner is... Tom Stern for Million Dollar Baby... oh yeah, he wasn't nominated. I haven't seen A Very Long Engagement, but it seems that both Richardson and Deschanel were a little bit pissed that it won the ASC award. No matter though, Richardson should have little trouble picking up the little golden guy. But if the Academy voters actually have eyes then they should give the award to Zhao and bow down at his feet for the beauty he created in House of Flying Daggers.

Will win: Robert Richardson
Should win: Zhao Xiaoding

Costume Design:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Ray
Troy

Honestly, who really cares?

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: The Aviator

Director
The Aviator - Martin Scorsese
Million Dollar Baby - Clint Eastwood
Ray - Taylor Hackford
Sideways - Alexander Payne
Vera Drake - Mike Leigh

Alright, people, just give the damn thing to Scorsese. If he's ever going to win that elusive statuette, then this is probaby his best chance. Unfortunately, after the DGA, I'm pretty sure they're going to get it all mixed up. What is Taylor Hackford doing on this list?

Will win: Clint Eastwood
Should win: Martin Scorsese

Documentary Feature:
Born Into Brothels
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Super Size Me
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith

I've only seen one of the nominated films, The Story of the Weeping Camel which came into favor with some of the more reputable Christian critics this year. It's a good documentary with an almost magical ending. However, Super Size Me gained a lot of popularity and Born Into Brothels has been garnering critical acclaim of late. It's an uninformed guess, but I'll probably stand by it.

Will win: The Story of the Weeping Camel
Should win: The Story of the Weeping Camel

Documentary Short:
Autism Is a World
The Children of Leningradsky
Hardwood
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion

Didn't Ryan Grant direct one of these? Okay, so I haven't seen any of them, but one of them is about children in Russia, so that sounds cool.

Will win: The Children of Leningradsky
Should win: ?

Editing:
The Aviator - Thelma Schoonmaker
Collateral - Jim Miller and Paul Rubell
Finding Neverland - Matt Chesse
Million Dollar Baby - Joel Cox
Ray - Paul Hirsch

Thelma, Thelma...! I'm not sure why I like her so much, but I maintain that she's the best editor in the business today. Teaming up with Scorsese wasn't a bad move on her part either. But it's been a long time since Raging Bull and her time has come again. But, I have to admit, they all have their editorial flourishes.

Will win: Thelma Schoonmaker
Should win: Thelma Schoonmaker

Foreing Language Film:
As It Is in Heaven
The Chorus
Downfall
The Sea Inside
Yesterday

Strangely enough, I haven't seen any of the nominees in this catagory. In fact, I am of the opinion that the best foreign films released this year weren't nominated. Neverltheless, Alejandro Amenabar's, The Sea Inside has gained some significant critical acclaim this year. Though recently, The Chorus has reached a good audience appeal.

Will win: The Sea Inside
Should win: The Sea Inside

Makeup:
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside

Well, if The Passion of the Christ has a chance at winning anything, this is it. Good gore makeup usually doesn't get the credit it deserves. But gore on Jesus will probably win Academy gold.

Will win: The Passion of the Christ
Should win: The Passion of the Christ

Original Music:
Finding Neverland - Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - John Williams
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Thomas Newman
The Passion of the Christ - John Debney
The Village - James Newton Howard

I see John Williams got his token nomination of the year. Kaczmarek's score helped bring the magic to Finding Neverland, but James Newton Howard was one of the few worthwile things about The Village. Who knows, John Debney may even manage to sneak in there, but I doubt it.

Will win: Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Should win: James Newton Howard

Original Song:
"Accidentally In Love" - Shrek 2
"Al Otro Lado Del Rio" - The Motorcycle Diaries
"Believe" - The Polar Express
"Learn to Be Lonely" - The Phantom of the Opera
"Look To Your Path" - The Chorus

I doubt the Counting Crows will win an Academy Award. To me, it's probably between "Learn to be Lonely" because The Phantom of the Opera was a musical -- so it should win for song, right? The real standout, though, is "Look To Your Path" a beautiful song sung by a boys choir.

Will win: "Look To Your Path"
Should win: "Look To Your Path"

Best Picture:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

Forget about everything else, the battle is between The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. Eastwood's film is the best of the lot and one of the best of the year. But Scorsese's delivers a lot of the things that Academy voters seem to love, and does it better than most. Can someone please tell me what Ray is doing here?

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: Million Dollar Baby

Animated Short:
Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke
Guard Dog
Lorenzo
Ryan

I have no idea, haven't seen any of them. But Eric told me about Ryan and Gopher Broke sounds promising.

Will win: Ryan
Should win: ?

Live Action Short:
Everything in This Country Must
Little Terrorist
7:35 in the Morning
Two Cars, One Night
Wasp

Again, beats me.

Will win: Little Terrorist
Should win: ?

Sound Editing:
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

Another tough one. I'm torn between two of them and not good enough with sound to say which is better. So, I'll just say one will win and the other should.

Will win: Spider-Man 2
Should win: The Incredibles

Sound Mixing:
The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

Again, same problem as before, but now I'm torn between four or five of them. They all sounded pretty damn good to me.

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: take your pick

Visual Effects:
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
I, Robot
Spider-Man 2

I've only seen one of the films, but it'll probably win.

Will win: Spider-Man 2
Should win: Spider-Man 2

Adapted Screenplay
Before Sunset - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke
Finding Neverland - David Magee
Million Dollar Baby - Paul Haggis
The Motorcycle Diaries - Jose Rivera
Sideways - Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor

In a perfect world, they would give the award to Richard Linklater and co. on a silver platter, but alas, it is not a perfect world. And the critical darling of the year, Sideways, deserves to win something, especially since it is a very well written film. Then again, Million Dollar Baby had a strong script and stands more than a good chance of winning.

Will win: Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor
Should win: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke

Original Screenplay:
The Aviator - John Logan
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - Charlie Kaufman
Hotel Rwanda - Keir Pearson and Terry George
The Incredibles - Brad Bird
Vera Drake - Mike Leigh

It's nice to see Brad Bird get some recognition, and he may even have and outside chance of winning, but probably not. I'm also glad to see Mike Leigh on the list even though he doesn't write scripts as they are traditionally thought of. But this will probably be the chance for Hollywood's quirkiest writer to get his due.

Will win: Charlie Kaufman
Should win: Mike Leigh


There you have it, ladies and gentleman. You may now place your bets.